| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Prices - M/M | 0.4% | 0.3% to 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | 1.9% | 2.2% | |||
| Export Prices - M/M | 0.3% | 0.1% to 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | 2.7% | 1.8% |
Highlights
Prices for U.S. imports rose 0.3 percent in January from December following a revised 0.2 percent rise the previous month and compared to expectations for a 0.4 percent rise in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The increase was the largest since it rose 0.9 percent in April 2024. Higher import fuel prices, up 3.2 percent, drove the increase. Import prices rose 1.9 percent on the year.
Export prices surged by 1.3 percent for the month compared with expectations for a 0.3 percent increase. It was the largest rise since May 2022. Export prices were up 0.5 percent the prior month, revised. Export prices rose 2.7 percent from a year ago, the largest annual rise since the year ended December 2022.
Within exports, prices for nonagricultural export prices were up 1.5 percent in January to drive the increase. Higher prices in January for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, consumer goods, and nonagricultural foods more than offset lower prices for automotive vehicles.
Export prices surged by 1.3 percent for the month compared with expectations for a 0.3 percent increase. It was the largest rise since May 2022. Export prices were up 0.5 percent the prior month, revised. Export prices rose 2.7 percent from a year ago, the largest annual rise since the year ended December 2022.
Within exports, prices for nonagricultural export prices were up 1.5 percent in January to drive the increase. Higher prices in January for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, consumer goods, and nonagricultural foods more than offset lower prices for automotive vehicles.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices are about to get a lot more interesting with the Trump tariffs. For now, expectations are benign with the consensus looking for imports up 0.4 percent on the month and exports up 0.3 percent.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
