ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Composite Index52.755.4
Services Index52.956.852.852.8 to 52.8

Highlights

The US composite index is 52.7, down from December's final (55.4). This indicates decent growth for the sample; but the rate of expansion was slower in January than in December. The rate of expansion of new orders eased, while the rate of job creation in employment accelerated its fastest since June 2022. Both input costs and output prices increased at faster rates.

The US services index for January is above the 50-growth threshold. At 52.9, it is up from the flash estimate (52.8) but still less than December's final (56.8). As with the PMI composite index, the sample had decent expansion but at a slower rate than in December. This slowdown might have been due to the unusual freezing weather condition, however there were still gains made in total new business.

Employment rose for the second month in a row to keep up with the increased new orders, however it might not have been adequate as outstanding business increased for the third month. Companies also increased their selling price in response to rising input cost and the rate of inflation reached a 3-month high.

Still, business confidence remained relatively high following December's 18-month high. This might be due to anticipation for the incoming administration or the growth in new orders and market activity. Regardless, this puts the US RPI at minus 4 and RPI-P stands at minus 7, overall economic activity is moderately performing within market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision from 52.8 for services is the call for the final.

Definition

US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys collected from over 400 U.S. companies which provide a leading indication of what is happening in the private sector services economy. It is seasonally adjusted and is calculated from seven components, including New Business, Employment and Business Expectations.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it indicates how various types of investments will perform. The Markit Services PMI provides advance insight into the services sector, which gives investors a better understanding of business conditions and valuable information about the economic backdrop of various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth which generally translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures. The PMI data are also used by many Central Banks to help make interest rate decisions.

The IHS Markit Services Flash data give a detailed look at the services sector, the pace of growth and the direction of this sector. Since the service sector accounts for more than three-quarters of U.S. GDP, this report has a significant influence on the markets. In addition, its sub-indexes provide a picture of new business, employment, business expectations and prices.
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