ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter1.7%1.6% to 1.7%1.6%0.9%
Year over Year5.0%4.4% to 5.1%5.4%4.6%

Highlights

China's GDP rose 1.6 percent on the quarter in the three months to December, up from growth of 0.9 percent in the three months to September, with year-over-year growth picking up from 4.6 percent to 5.4 percent. Monthly activity data also published today showed stronger growth in key activity indicators but another substantial decline in house prices.

Today's data follow a series of policy measures announced by Chinese officials in September and October in response to ongoing weakness in the property sector and sluggish growth in consumer spending and manufacturing output. Officials lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate, cut banks' reserve requirements, and brought forward planned government spending.

In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy is"generally stable with steady progress", judging that conditions have"recovered remarkably" in response to their"timely" policy measures. Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.

Data published today were stronger than consensus expectations for year-over-year growth of 5.0 percent, but in line with the quarter-over-quarter growth forecast of 1.7 percent. The China's RPI rose from minus 14 to plus 56 while the RPI-P rose from minus 30 to plus 69, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in well above consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

GDP growth is seen at 1.7 percent on the quarter and 5.0 percent on year.

Definition

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the final products at market prices produced by all resident units in a country (or a region) during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of the national accounts, and also an important indicator to measure the economic conditions and the level of development of a country or region. GDP is calculated from three approaches -- production, income and expenditure -- which reflect gross domestic product and its composition from different angles.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

The data are compiled by NBS and the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Estimates for non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government, household and the rest of the world sectors are published. The production accounts, distribution and use of income account, and capital account data are compiled by NBS. NBS also develops the financial account by rearranging financial transactions data in the flow of funds accounts compiled by PBoC. There are no breakdowns of government consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in inventories and net exports. Household consumption expenditures are broken down into urban and rural. The income components of GDP are only published in the input-output tables. NBS uses the Chinese Industrial Classification of the National Economy.
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