| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | +0.15 | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.13 | -0.31 | -0.26 |
Highlights
The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) is up to positive 0.15 in December after minus 0.01 in November. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show 2 positive and 2 negative contributions in December. Among the categories 2 increased and 1 decreased.
The December index has its first positive reading since 0.23 in May 2024. The November index sees a substantial upward revision that probably reflects capturing some late data related to strike settlements and post-hurricane activity rebounds. The Chicago Fed says,"Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above 0.35."
Production-related indicators are up to positive 0.19 in December after positive 0.03 in November. Sales, orders, and inventories are up to minus 0.02 in December after minus 0.05 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are unchanged at positive 0.01 in December after positive 0.01 in November. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are down to minus 0.02 in December after minus 0.01 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in December is minus 0.13 compared to minus 0.26 in the prior month.
The December index has its first positive reading since 0.23 in May 2024. The November index sees a substantial upward revision that probably reflects capturing some late data related to strike settlements and post-hurricane activity rebounds. The Chicago Fed says,"Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above 0.35."
Production-related indicators are up to positive 0.19 in December after positive 0.03 in November. Sales, orders, and inventories are up to minus 0.02 in December after minus 0.05 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are unchanged at positive 0.01 in December after positive 0.01 in November. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are down to minus 0.02 in December after minus 0.01 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in December is minus 0.13 compared to minus 0.26 in the prior month.
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Description
This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
