| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | £-19.31B | £-18.97B | £-19.33B |
| Imports - M/M | 0.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% |
| Imports - Y/Y | 1.2% | -4.1% | -3.3% |
| Exports - M/M | 0.8% | -0.1% | -1.7% |
| Exports - Y/Y | -13.4% | -11.5% | -13.1% |
Highlights
Month-over-month, UK trade in November 2024 revealed that goods imports slightly rose by 0.5 percent due to declining trade with EU countries, while imports from non-EU regions remained stable. Meanwhile, goods exports increased by £0.2 billion (0.8 percent), driven by stronger non-EU trade, which partially offset a decline in exports to EU markets. Despite these movements, the overall trade picture was challenging. The total trade deficit in goods and services remained very high at £19.31 billion in November, a slight reduction from £19.33 in October. This was attributed to a sharper decline in exports compared to imports, highlighting persistent imbalances in trade flows.
Year-over-year, goods import rose by 1.2 percent while exports fell by 13.4 percent due to declining trade with EU countries. Over the three months to November, the total trade deficit in goods and services widened significantly by £3.8 billion to £10.8 billion. This was attributed to a sharper decline in exports compared to imports, highlighting persistent imbalances in trade flows. The goods trade deficit expanded by £1.8 billion to £54.1 billion over the same period, emphasising sustained pressures on the UK's industrial and manufacturing sectors. Concurrently, the services trade surplus narrowed by £1.9 billion to £43.3 billion, suggesting weaker performance in key service industries.
These trends underline the need for diversified trade strategies to strengthen non-EU partnerships and address EU trade challenges while bolstering the competitiveness of goods and services exports in a complex global trade environment. The latest update takes the UK RPi to minus 5 and the RPI-P to minus 27, meaning that economic activities are generally behind market estimates.
Year-over-year, goods import rose by 1.2 percent while exports fell by 13.4 percent due to declining trade with EU countries. Over the three months to November, the total trade deficit in goods and services widened significantly by £3.8 billion to £10.8 billion. This was attributed to a sharper decline in exports compared to imports, highlighting persistent imbalances in trade flows. The goods trade deficit expanded by £1.8 billion to £54.1 billion over the same period, emphasising sustained pressures on the UK's industrial and manufacturing sectors. Concurrently, the services trade surplus narrowed by £1.9 billion to £43.3 billion, suggesting weaker performance in key service industries.
These trends underline the need for diversified trade strategies to strengthen non-EU partnerships and address EU trade challenges while bolstering the competitiveness of goods and services exports in a complex global trade environment. The latest update takes the UK RPi to minus 5 and the RPI-P to minus 27, meaning that economic activities are generally behind market estimates.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness. Data are supplied by over 30 sources including several administrative sources, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) being the largest.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in the UK. Exports show the demand for UK goods in countries overseas. The pound sterling can be particularly sensitive to changes in the trade deficit run by the United Kingdom, since the trade shortfalls create greater net demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
The UK's trade balance is particularly susceptible to swings in the oil account and so within the overall goods balance, financial markets will normally focus on the balance excluding oil and other erratic items.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in the UK. Exports show the demand for UK goods in countries overseas. The pound sterling can be particularly sensitive to changes in the trade deficit run by the United Kingdom, since the trade shortfalls create greater net demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
The UK's trade balance is particularly susceptible to swings in the oil account and so within the overall goods balance, financial markets will normally focus on the balance excluding oil and other erratic items.
