Claimant count unemployment showed a slight rise of 700 from a significantly revised fall of minus 25,100 in the previous month. The rate was 4.6 percent, unchanged from the last month. The ILO unemployment rate rose slightly from a downwardly revised 4.3 percent in the previous month to 4.4 percent between September and November, suggesting a slight rise in the broader unemployment situation. On this definition, joblessness was up 60,000 to 1.568 million between September and November, compared to the previous period. However, employment rose by a very healthy 538,000.

The early estimate of payrolled employees for December 2024 fell by 47,000 in December, the sixth time of falling in the last seven months and decreased by 8,000 over the year, while the October to December vacancies were off 24,000 and at 812,000, their 29th consecutive decrease but are still above pre-COVID-19 levels. Meanwhile, average earnings for both regular and total earnings saw annual growth in the three months to November rise to 5.6 percent.

In summary, this combination of rising employment and falling vacancies suggests the labour market is in transition, moving from a period of rapid recovery to a more stabilised, but potentially slower, phase of growth. The latest update leaves the UK RPI at minus 26 and the RPI-P at minus 31, meaning that economic activity, in general, is performing well behind market expectations.

The Labour Market Report covers a number of key areas of the jobs market. Unemployment is updated on the basis of two separate surveys: the claimant count, which measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, and the more reliable but lagging International Labour Organization's (ILO) measure that excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are both looking and are available for work. Average earnings growth, a key determinant of inflation, is also updated.

The labour market survey gives the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.

The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.

By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.