ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Rate6.3%6.3% to 6.4%6.3%6.3%6.2%

Highlights

The December 2024 euro area unemployment report reflects both short-term pressures and long-term improvement. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 6.3 percent, in line with the consensus and slightly higher than November's 6.2 percent, signalling a modest rise in joblessness. This monthly increase corresponds to 96,000 more unemployed individuals. However, the annual comparison paints a more optimistic picture with the unemployment rate down from 6.5 percent in December 2023, with 266,000 fewer people out of work, indicating gradual labour market resilience despite broader economic challenges.

Amongst the larger euro area countries, the national unemployment rate rose in France (7.8 percent after 7.7 percent) and Italy (6.2 percent after 5.9 percent), while it decreased in Spain (10.6 percent after 10.7 percent), but was stable in Germany (3.4 percent).

With 10.83 million people unemployed, the euro area labour market remains under pressure, but the data suggests progress in reducing long-term unemployment. Moving forward, monitoring employment trends will be crucial to assessing the euro area's economic trajectory in 2025. The latest update takes the Euro Area RPI to 3 and the RPI-P to 7. This means that economic activities are generally within the consensus of the euro area economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters expect the jobless rate flat at 6.3 percent.

Definition

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.

Description

Unemployment data are closely monitored by the financial markets. These data give a comprehensive report on the state of the economy and its future direction. A rising unemployment rate can be a warning sign of hard times while a low rate can be a warning of inflation as wages are bid up to attract labor.

Unemployment data are expressed in both a numerical value and as a percentage of the labor force. Generally, the definition of those unemployed follows that of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). It states that an unemployed person is one between the ages of 15 to 74 years of age who was not employed during the reference week, had actively sought work during the past four weeks and was ready to begin working immediately or within two weeks. The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed persons over the total number of active persons in the labor market. Active persons are those who are either employed or unemployed.

Eurostat provides an unemployment rate for each EU country as well as for the EMU and EU as a whole. It should be noted that the unemployment rate for a country will frequently differ with that reported by the national statistics agency. That is because of the varying interpretations of the ILO definition by member states and Eurostat.
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