| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.1% | -0.5% | -0.3% | ||
| Year over Year | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% to 1.9% |
Highlights
November 2024's retail landscape revealed a slight uptick of 0.1 percent in retail trade volume from October 2024, following a decline of 0.3 percent the previous month, suggesting a cautious stabilisation in consumer spending.
Sector-specific analysis for November 2024 reveals contrasting trends: the volume of retail trade for food, drinks, and tobacco edged up by a modest 0.1 percent, while automotive fuel sales in specialized stores saw a more robust increase of 0.8 percent. This could indicate a rising consumer mobility or a response to fluctuating fuel prices. Conversely, non-food products experienced a decrease of 0.6 percent, possibly reflecting shifting consumer priorities or greater sensitivity to non-essential spending amidst economic uncertainties.
Year-over-year, the comparison with November 2023 shows an overall healthier retail environment with a 1.2 percent increase in the retail sales index, 0.6 percentage points below the consensus. Each sector recorded growth, with non-food products leading at a 1.5 percent increase, suggesting a recovery or adaptation in consumer habits over the year. Food, drinks, and tobacco, as well as automotive fuel, also grew, though at a slower pace, marking a steady but cautious optimism in the market.
These patterns underscore a gradual but uneven recovery trajectory within the euro area's retail sector, with varying degrees of resilience across different market segments. The latest update takes the RPI to minus 16 and minus 33. This suggests that economic activities are generally lagging in the euro area.
Sector-specific analysis for November 2024 reveals contrasting trends: the volume of retail trade for food, drinks, and tobacco edged up by a modest 0.1 percent, while automotive fuel sales in specialized stores saw a more robust increase of 0.8 percent. This could indicate a rising consumer mobility or a response to fluctuating fuel prices. Conversely, non-food products experienced a decrease of 0.6 percent, possibly reflecting shifting consumer priorities or greater sensitivity to non-essential spending amidst economic uncertainties.
Year-over-year, the comparison with November 2023 shows an overall healthier retail environment with a 1.2 percent increase in the retail sales index, 0.6 percentage points below the consensus. Each sector recorded growth, with non-food products leading at a 1.5 percent increase, suggesting a recovery or adaptation in consumer habits over the year. Food, drinks, and tobacco, as well as automotive fuel, also grew, though at a slower pace, marking a steady but cautious optimism in the market.
These patterns underscore a gradual but uneven recovery trajectory within the euro area's retail sector, with varying degrees of resilience across different market segments. The latest update takes the RPI to minus 16 and minus 33. This suggests that economic activities are generally lagging in the euro area.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for retail sales up 1.8 percent on the year in November after rising 1.9 percent in October.
Definition
Retail sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. Eurozone retail sales are reported monthly, in volume terms and exclude autos and motorcycles. A limited sector breakdown is presented in the first release but much more detail is available in the following period's release.
Description
Retail sales are important indicators of domestic consumer demand and are monitored closely by analysts as an important input to GDP. If you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The data are available in both value and volume measures although the press release deals only with volume. In addition to the total, the initial report provides a limited breakdown that separately identifies food, drink and tobacco, and (excluding automotive fuel) non-food products. A more comprehensive dataset is only available with the following month's release. Unlike the U.S. and Canada, auto sales are not included in the retail sales data.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
