ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Index45.245.2 to 45.245.145.2

Highlights

Manufacturing activity deteriorated in further in December. At 45.1, the final PMI was below its lowly flash estimate and 0.1 points weaker than its final November mark, hitting a 3-month low. It was also a full 4.9 points below the 50-expansion threshold.

The best-performing countries were Spain (53.3), Greece (53.2) where growth was at least positive. However, Ireland (49.1), the Netherlands (48.6), Italy (46.2), Austria (43.3), Germany (42.5) and France (41.9) all saw fresh contractions.

Factory output for the Eurozone fell, hitting a 14-month low, the lowest it has been since October 2023. Factory employment remained contracted extending the period of job loss to over a year and a half. Operating costs, however, did not decline for the first time since August. Still, an absence of cost pressure allowed firms to discount the price of their goods further as selling prices fell for the fourth month in a row. Business optimism edged up to a 4-month high in December.

Today's update puts the Eurozone RPI at 3 and the RPI-P at 4. Overall economic activity in general is within market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The call is no revision for the final from the flash at 45.2.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). Released by S&P Global, national data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece. These countries together account for an estimated 89 percent of Eurozone manufacturing activity.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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