| U.S. Grain Stocks (1000 Bushels) | ||||||
| 2023 | 2024 | |||||
| On Farms | Off Farms | Total | On Farms | Off Farms | Total | |
| Corn | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 4,105,000 | 3,291,403 | 7,396,403 | 5,079,000 | 3,273,378 | 8,352,378 |
| Jun 1 | 2,216,800 | 1,886,509 | 4,103,309 | 3,026,000 | 1,971,048 | 4,997,048 |
| Sep 1 | 604,400 | 755,801 | 1,360,201 | 780,400 | 983,000 | 1,763,400 |
| Dec 1 | 7,830,000 | 4,341,163 | 12,171,163 | 7,663,000 | 4,411,194 | 12,074,194 |
| All Wheat | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 227,485 | 713,733 | 941,218 | 271,930 | 816,779 | 1,088,709 |
| Jun 1 | 124,420 | 445,148 | 569,568 | 138,915 | 557,519 | 696,434 |
| Sep 1 | 598,140 | 1,168,981 | 1,767,121 | 663,760 | 1,328,397 | 1,992,157 |
| Dec 1 | 401,060 | 1,020,019 | 1,421,079 | 466,580 | 1,103,046 | 1,569,626 |
| Soybeans | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 749,500 | 937,132 | 1,686,632 | 933,000 | 911,824 | 1,844,824 |
| Jun 1 | 322,800 | 473,588 | 796,388 | 466,000 | 504,050 | 970,050 |
| Sep 1 | 72,000 | 192,184 | 264,184 | 111,200 | 231,233 | 342,433 |
| Dec 1 | 1,453,000 | 1,547,719 | 3,000,719 | 1,540,000 | 1,559,743 | 3,099,743 |
| USDA December 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks Pre-Report Estimates | ||||
| Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| Corn | 12,166 | 11,912 | 12,320 | 12,171 |
| Soybeans | 3,211 | 3,040 | 3,280 | 3,001 |
| Wheat | 1,567 | 1,460 | 1,638 | 1,421 |
Highlights
SOYBEANS:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed December 1 soybean stocks at 3.100 billion bushels, up 3% from a year ago. This compares to an average pre-report expectation of 3.211 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 3.04 to 3.28 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 3.001 billion. On-farm soybean stocks were 1.54 billion bushels, up 6% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.56 billion bushels, up 1% from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the September ? November timeframe totaled 1.61 billion bushels, up 13% from the same period a year ago
PRICE OUTLOOK: With today's quarterly stocks numbers coming in near the low-end of the range of estimates, bean prices are likely to find bullish support, especially since funds remain a significant net short coming into the report. March beans appear headed to 0.618 retracement resistance at 1041 1/2. Once the initial report bullishness is digested, traders will return to focus on upcoming Argentine weather where relief showers are expected at the end of next week.
CORN:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed December 1 corn stocks at 12.074 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 12.166 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 11.912 to 12.320 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 12.171 billion. On-farm corn stocks were 7.66 billion bushels, down 2.1% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 4.41 billion bushels, up 1.6% from a year ago. Indicated disappearance during the September ? November timeframe was 4.56 million bushels, compared with 4.53 billion during the same period last year.
PRICE OUTLOOK: A slightly bullish stocks number for corn today, and March prices have moved above resistance post-report. Corn has rallied nearly $0.70 since the August lows, but today's bullish numbers may open the door for additional gains. Next major resistance beyond 468 is the 50% retracement to the 2023 summer highs which stands at 487. The market is likely to see good support on reasonable pullbacks.
WHEAT:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed December 1 wheat stocks at 1.57 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 1.567 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 1.46 to 1.638 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 1.421 billion. On-farm wheat stocks were 466.58 million bushels, up 16.3% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.103 billion bushels, up 8.1% from a year ago. The September ? November indicated disappearance is 423 million bushels, 22% above the same period last year.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Quarterly wheat stocks were very close to the pre-report estimates and not much of a factor for prices today. The wheat market has been stagnant for most of this week but did probe into new contract lows just as the report was released. However, spillover strength in the other grains has pulled wheat back higher. March Chicago has the potential for a bullish technical reversal higher if prices close strong today. The recent downtrend may be close to ending, but the market needs to clear 554 3/4 to turn the short-term trend higher.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed December 1 soybean stocks at 3.100 billion bushels, up 3% from a year ago. This compares to an average pre-report expectation of 3.211 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 3.04 to 3.28 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 3.001 billion. On-farm soybean stocks were 1.54 billion bushels, up 6% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.56 billion bushels, up 1% from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the September ? November timeframe totaled 1.61 billion bushels, up 13% from the same period a year ago
PRICE OUTLOOK: With today's quarterly stocks numbers coming in near the low-end of the range of estimates, bean prices are likely to find bullish support, especially since funds remain a significant net short coming into the report. March beans appear headed to 0.618 retracement resistance at 1041 1/2. Once the initial report bullishness is digested, traders will return to focus on upcoming Argentine weather where relief showers are expected at the end of next week.
CORN:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed December 1 corn stocks at 12.074 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 12.166 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 11.912 to 12.320 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 12.171 billion. On-farm corn stocks were 7.66 billion bushels, down 2.1% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 4.41 billion bushels, up 1.6% from a year ago. Indicated disappearance during the September ? November timeframe was 4.56 million bushels, compared with 4.53 billion during the same period last year.
PRICE OUTLOOK: A slightly bullish stocks number for corn today, and March prices have moved above resistance post-report. Corn has rallied nearly $0.70 since the August lows, but today's bullish numbers may open the door for additional gains. Next major resistance beyond 468 is the 50% retracement to the 2023 summer highs which stands at 487. The market is likely to see good support on reasonable pullbacks.
WHEAT:
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed December 1 wheat stocks at 1.57 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 1.567 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 1.46 to 1.638 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 1.421 billion. On-farm wheat stocks were 466.58 million bushels, up 16.3% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.103 billion bushels, up 8.1% from a year ago. The September ? November indicated disappearance is 423 million bushels, 22% above the same period last year.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Quarterly wheat stocks were very close to the pre-report estimates and not much of a factor for prices today. The wheat market has been stagnant for most of this week but did probe into new contract lows just as the report was released. However, spillover strength in the other grains has pulled wheat back higher. March Chicago has the potential for a bullish technical reversal higher if prices close strong today. The recent downtrend may be close to ending, but the market needs to clear 554 3/4 to turn the short-term trend higher.
Definition
This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.
Description
Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.
September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.
The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.
The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.
September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.
The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.
The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.
