ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Year over Year3.9%3.9% to 4.0%5.2%3.5%

Highlights

India's index of industrial production rose 5.2 percent on the year in November, accelerating from growth of 3.5 percent in October and well above the consensus forecast for an increase of 3.9 percent. Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output advanced 5.8 percent on the year after an increase of 4.1 percent previously. More up-to-date PMI survey data published previously indicated that conditions in the manufacturing sector moderated but remained solid in November and were relatively steady in December. Mining and electricity output rose 1.9 percent and 4.4 percent on the year respectively in November.

The Reserve Bank of India again left policy rates on hold at 6.50 percent at their most recent meeting held last month, with officials again expressing confidence in the resilience of economic activity. Officials noted risks to the inflation outlook and kept their policy stance"neutral". This, they judge, will provide them with greater flexibility in upcoming meetings while enabling them to continue monitoring the path of disinflation. They also repeated their earlier pledge to remain focused on achieving"a durable alignment of the headline CPI inflation with the target".

Market Consensus Before Announcement

India's industrial production is forecast to post a 3.9% rise on the year in December, picking up further from increases of 3.5% in November and 3.1% in October.

At its latest meeting on Dec. 4-6, the Reserve Bank of India's six-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 4 to 2 to leave the policy interest rate at 6.50% to guide inflation within its 2% to 6% target range. Consumer inflation had continued accelerating to 6.21% in October after surging to 5.49% in September from 3.65% in August. Two members argued for lowering the rate to 6.25% in the face of weak third-quarter GDP data, compared to just one member urging a 25 basis point rate cut.

Definition

Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Data are not seasonally adjusted and the main is on the annual growth rate of total industrial production and, within that, manufacturing output. The report is usually released around six weeks after the end of the reference month.

Description

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

The index is a quantitative index with the production of the items being expressed in physical terms. The Index is compiled by taking into account the quantities of items produced during the current month, compared with the average monthly production in the base year. Selection of items is based on the total production of the items as the primary (main) product as well as secondary (by) product. Data are available monthly within six weeks of reference month.
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