ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Annual Rate4.160M4.100M to 4.220M4.24M4.150M
Month over Month2.2%4.8%
Year over Year9.3%2.6%

Highlights

The NAR data on sales of existing homes finished 2024 on an upnote with an increase of 2.2 percent to 4.24 million units at an annual rate in December after an unrevised 4.15 million units in November. The consensus in the Econoday survey of forecasters looks for a level of 4.16 million units in December. Sales picked up toward the end of the year as homebuyers took advantage of more plentiful inventory and more power to negotiate price and terms. Sales are up 9.3 percent compared to December 2023. Homebuyers who had prequalified for mortgages at lower rates also acted before rate locks expired.

The NAR said that the annual pace of sales for 2024 is 4.06 million units, slightly below 4.09 million units in 2023, and the lowest since 1995.

The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged about 6.8 percent in November and December. Rates began to move higher around mid-December when it became clear that the FOMC was on hold for further cuts in short-term rates and financial market conditions would not become easier.

Three of four regions have sales gains in December with the Northeast up 3.9 percent, the South up 3.2 percent, and the West up 2.6 percent. Sales decline 1.0 percent in the Midwest.

Sales of single-family homes are up 1.9 percent in December from November and 10.1 percent higher than a year earlier. Sales of multi-family homes are up 5.1 percent in December from the prior month and 2.5 percent from the year-ago month.

The median price for all homes is unchanged at $404,400 in December from November and up 6.0 percent compared to December 2023. The months' supply of homes on the market is down to 3.3 after 3.8 in November and 3.1 in December 2023.

An existing home is listed for an average of 35 days in December, up from 32 days in November and 29 days in December 2023. The share of first-time buyers increases to 31 percent in December from 30 percent in November and 29 percent in December 2024.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sales are seen holding roughly steady at an annual rate of 4.16 million units in December versus 4.15 million in November despite rising mortgage rates in December.

Definition

Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.

Description

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.

Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
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