ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Composite Index55.454.9
Services Index56.856.158.557.1 to 58.5

Highlights

The US composite index is 55.4, less than the flash estimate (56.6) but more than November's final (54.9). This indicates that while growth for the sample accelerated in December compared to November, the latter half of December underperformed when compared to the earlier half of the month. Still, new orders rose, and employment increased for the first time since August.

The US services index for December is well above the 50-growth threshold. At 56.8, it is less than the flash estimate (58.5) but still higher than November's final (56.1), reaching an impressive 33-month high. As with the PMI composite index, growth for the sample accelerated in December compared to November, the latter half of December underperformed when compared to the earlier half of the month. Still, this is the fastest expansion in 33-months. Largely due to the largest increase in new order since March 2022. This is attributed to clients more willing to commit to new projects following the results of the Presidential Election, resulting in the expansion of new business for the eighth month in a row.

Employment rose for the first time in four months to keep up with the increased new orders.

Companies increased their selling price in response to rising input costs. However, the rate of inflation was modest.

Business confidence rose higher in December as anticipation for the incoming administration boosted optimism to its highest in a year and a half. The US RPI stands at plus 4 and RPI-P stands at plus 6, overall economic activity is moderately performing within market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The consensus looks for no change from a robust 58.5 in the December flash and up from 56.1 in November.

Definition

US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is based on monthly questionnaire surveys collected from over 400 U.S. companies which provide a leading indication of what is happening in the private sector services economy. It is seasonally adjusted and is calculated from seven components, including New Business, Employment and Business Expectations.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it indicates how various types of investments will perform. The Markit Services PMI provides advance insight into the services sector, which gives investors a better understanding of business conditions and valuable information about the economic backdrop of various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth which generally translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures. The PMI data are also used by many Central Banks to help make interest rate decisions.

The IHS Markit Services Flash data give a detailed look at the services sector, the pace of growth and the direction of this sector. Since the service sector accounts for more than three-quarters of U.S. GDP, this report has a significant influence on the markets. In addition, its sub-indexes provide a picture of new business, employment, business expectations and prices.
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