| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.1% | -0.1% to 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| Year over Year | 1.5% | 1.9% |
Highlights
GDP was down 0.2 percent in November from October, worse than the expected 0.1 percent decline, following an unrevised rise of 0.3 percent in October. The advance estimate for December calls for an increase of 0.2 percent.
The latest report featured contraction in 13 of 20 sectors, showing broad-based weakness, and the 0.2 percent loss was biggest in a month since December 2023. There was a contraction of 0.6 percent in goods-producing industries and a 0.1 percent decline in services.
The latest report featured contraction in 13 of 20 sectors, showing broad-based weakness, and the 0.2 percent loss was biggest in a month since December 2023. There was a contraction of 0.6 percent in goods-producing industries and a 0.1 percent decline in services.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters expect GDP to shrink by 0.1 percent in November from October, in line with the Stats Canada forecast, and reflecting declines in retail and wholesale trade and in manufacturing.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.
Description
Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.
