ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month0.3%-0.1%-0.9%-0.8%
Year over Year-0.6%-0.6%

Highlights

In October, industrial output fell 0.1 percent over the month, some 0.4 percentage points below the consensus estimate. Manufacturing output was flat within which machinery and equipment (1.8 percent) and coke and refined petroleum products (4.8 percent) showed significant rebounds, while transport equipment (minus 2.4 percent) and food products (minus 0.5 percent) experienced declines.

Year-over-year, industrial production output fell by 0.6 percent, driven by sharp declines in transport equipment (minus 5.0 percent), machinery and equipment (minus 2.7 percent), and refined petroleum products (minus 5.3 percent). However, modest growth in mining and quarrying (1.8 percent) and food products (0.9 percent) provided some balance. Energy-intensive industries remain heavily impacted by elevated energy costs linked to contracts from 2022 and 2023. Sectors like iron and steel (minus 23.5 percent) and basic chemicals (minus 17.2 percent) continue to face significant reductions compared to pre-energy price surge levels in 2021.

Production in September was revised marginally firmer but the overall picture remains soft and the sector is unlikely to provide much, if any support, for fourth quarter GDP growth. The French RPI now stands at minus 33 and the RPI-P at minus 22, meaning that economic activity in general is still lagging quite well behind market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

After a surprisingly steep 0.9 percent monthly fall in September, goods production is expected to rise a modest 0.3 percent in October.

Definition

Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Manufacturing is seen as the best guide to underlying developments as some sectors can be very volatile and cause misleadingly large short-term swings in total industrial production.

Description

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded from the data. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
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