Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.9% | -0.8% |
Year over Year | -0.6% | -0.6% |
Highlights
Year-over-year, industrial production output fell by 0.6 percent, driven by sharp declines in transport equipment (minus 5.0 percent), machinery and equipment (minus 2.7 percent), and refined petroleum products (minus 5.3 percent). However, modest growth in mining and quarrying (1.8 percent) and food products (0.9 percent) provided some balance. Energy-intensive industries remain heavily impacted by elevated energy costs linked to contracts from 2022 and 2023. Sectors like iron and steel (minus 23.5 percent) and basic chemicals (minus 17.2 percent) continue to face significant reductions compared to pre-energy price surge levels in 2021.
Production in September was revised marginally firmer but the overall picture remains soft and the sector is unlikely to provide much, if any support, for fourth quarter GDP growth. The French RPI now stands at minus 33 and the RPI-P at minus 22, meaning that economic activity in general is still lagging quite well behind market expectations.