ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
Year over Year1.3%1.3%1.3%
HICP - M/M-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
HICP - Y/Y1.7%1.7%1.7%

Highlights

The month-over-month consumer price index for November showed that consumer prices fell by 0.1 percent, in line with the flash estimate and reversing part of October's 0.3 percent rise. This decline was driven largely by a seasonal drop in airfare prices (minus 11.4 percent), which pulled service prices down by 0.3 percent. Energy prices saw modest growth (0.2 percent), while food and manufactured goods remained stable, highlighting a temporary easing of price pressures.

Year-over-year, inflation ticked up slightly to 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent in October, also matching its provisional reading. A less pronounced annual decline in energy prices (minus 0.7 percent compared to minus 2.0 percent) contributed to this uptick, offset by slower growth in food prices (0.2 percent versus 0.6 percent). Manufactured goods and services prices remained steady year-over-year, with services maintaining a 2.3 percent increase, while tobacco prices surged by 8.7 percent.

Core inflation, a measure excluding volatile items, rose marginally to 1.5 percent from 1.4 percent in October, signalling just very limited underlying price pressures. The harmonised index of consumer prices also fell by 0.1 percent month-over-month but accelerated slightly to 1.7 percent year-over-year in line with the consensus.

These figures suggest a stabilising inflationary environment, with moderate upward pressures reflecting energy dynamics and steady core inflation. The latest update takes the RPI to minus 19 and the RPI-P to minus 7. This means that economic activities in general are slightly behind market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the provisional release leaving consumer prices 0.1 percent lower on the month and the yearly inflation rate at 1.3 percent, up a tick versus October.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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