| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$4.5B | A$3.8B to A$5.5B | A$5.953B | A$4.609B | A$4.532B |
| Imports - M/M | 0.1% | -3.1% | -2.8% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | 0.2% | -5.8% | -5.4% | ||
| Exports - M/M | 3.6% | -4.3% | -4.7% | ||
| Exports -Y/Y | -8.9% | -8.7% | -8.6% |
Highlights
Australia's goods trade surplus narrowed from a revised A$4.532 billion in September to A$5.953 billion in October, below the consensus forecast of A$5.45 billion. Exports and imports both rebounded on the month after previous declines, with exports showing particular strength.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 3.6 percent on the month in October after a decline of 4.7 percent in September. Exports of non-rural goods rebounded sharply, up 1.3 percent after falling 4.7 percent previously, outweighing weaker exports of rural goods, down 0.5 percent after a previous increase of 5.2 percent. Exports fell 8.9 percent on the year in October after a decline of 8.6 percent in September.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 0.1 percent on the month in October after dropping 2.8 percent in September. Imports of consumption goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods recorded stronger growth, partly offset by a bigger fall in imports of capital goods. Total imports rose 0.2 percent on the year in October after falling 5.4 percent in September.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 3.6 percent on the month in October after a decline of 4.7 percent in September. Exports of non-rural goods rebounded sharply, up 1.3 percent after falling 4.7 percent previously, outweighing weaker exports of rural goods, down 0.5 percent after a previous increase of 5.2 percent. Exports fell 8.9 percent on the year in October after a decline of 8.6 percent in September.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 0.1 percent on the month in October after dropping 2.8 percent in September. Imports of consumption goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods recorded stronger growth, partly offset by a bigger fall in imports of capital goods. Total imports rose 0.2 percent on the year in October after falling 5.4 percent in September.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The trade balance is expected at a relatively modest surplus of A$4.5 in October versus A$4.609 billion in September.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
