ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Month over Month0.16%0.41%
Year over Year3.0%4.8%5.0%4.6% to 5.1%

Highlights

Chinese retail sales rose 3.0 percent on the year in November, slowing sharply from growth of 4.8 percent in October. In month-over-month terms, retail sales rose 0.16 percent after advancing 0.41 percent previously.

In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy was"generally stable with steady progress" and has"sustained the recovery momentum" but noted"the external environment is increasingly complicated" and"demand is insufficient at home". Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.

Data published today showed weaker-than-expected retail sales, with other indicators close to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P remained unchanged at minus 21 and minus 30 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in well below consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sales bounced back more than expected to a 4.8 percent rise year on year in October from 3.2 percent in September. For November, the call is an even better 5.0 percent.

Definition

Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.

Description

Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
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