The leading indicator fell below its 100 long-run average in December. At 99.5, it's down from November's firmer revised 102.9.

All indicators made a negative contribution, especially among manufacturing and other services, hospitality, foreign demand and private consumption. Within manufacturing and construction, most sub-indicators show downward tendencies, especially within production activities such as backlogs and exports. The sub-indicator for stocks of finished products point to more favorable conditions, at least contrasting the otherwise dire outlook.

In sum, December's data show many indicators in decline compared to November's report. This leaves the Swiss RPI at minus 13 and the RPI-P at minus 8, showing economic activity in general falling short of market forecasts.

The KOF Economic Indicator is a composite leading indicator that aims to identify shifts in the Swiss business cycle around three months ahead of the actual event and, until the start of 2014, was based on twenty-five different economic indicators. The old version of the KOF Economic Indicator used the previous year's GDP growth rate published by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) as a yardstick. The revised measure still incorporates SECO data; however, KOF has changed over to month-on-month changes in GDP which are generated via statistical methods. This reference series is not about exact GDP figures but about the direction and strength of the economic trend. The new objective of the Barometer is the same as the old objective: achieving maximum possible accuracy in predicting the Swiss business cycle.

The indicator measures overall economic activity through a qualitative business survey about developments in the recent past, the current situation and expectations for the next three to six months. Getting an accurate handle on where the economy is headed is inevitably a vital element in all investment decisions and the new measure uses some 219 variables in order to do just that. The set of variables will be reviewed every autumn.

Survey questions relate to production, orders and stocks of finished goods. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute publishes this indicator monthly.