Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Highlights
On the quarter, gross fixed capital formation decreased 1.2 percent but was more than offset by a 1.4 percent bounce in household consumption. Net foreign trade had a negative effect as exports fell 0.9 percent while imports rose 1.2 percent.
In line with much of Europe, the Italian economy is struggling to gain momentum, not least due to the ongoing weakness of the manufacturing sector. Accordingly, with inflation also well below 2 percent, the domestic picture strongly supports a probable cut in ECB interest rates next week. Today's update puts the Italian RPI at 4 and the RPI-P at minus 19. Real economic activity is surprising slightly on the downside.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.