Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
HICP - M/M | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
HICP - Y/Y | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
Highlights
Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and fresh food, was unrevised at 1.9 percent, up from 1.8 percent in October. Excluding just energy, the rate was 2.0 percent, up from 1.9 percent in October. The gap between goods and services decreased in November.
The HICP, which, unlike the CPI, accounts for seasonal factors like summer sales, fell 0.1 percent monthly, also less 0.1 percentage point below its flash estimate. This trimmed the annual rate to 1.5 percent, albeit still up from October's 1.0 percent.
Today's update puts the Italian RPI at 4 and the RPI-P at minus 6, indicating that overall economic activity is performing broadly as expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.