| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.7% | 0.5% to 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Year over Year | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% |
Highlights
Canada retail sales increased 0.6 percent in October, matching a revised 0.6 percent rise in September (previously +0.4 percent) and vs. the 0.7 percent jump expected in the Econoday consensus forecast. Statscan said sales were up in five of nine subsectors, led by increased sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers.
Retail sales are up 1.5 percent from October 2023, improving on the 1.2 percent jump on an annual basis in September.
Core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations, fuel vendors and auto dealers, rose at a slower rate in October up 0.2 percent after a 1.4 percent surge in September. Core sales are up 1.8 percent compared to October 2023, a slight deceleration from the 1.9 percent year-over-year increase reported for September.
The October retail sales data underscores the Bank of Canada's decision to cut rates in December, with fourth quarter economic activity expected to be weaker. It will take some time for lower borrowing costs to reverse the slowdown in consumer spending, with overall consumption not expected to pick up until the second half of 2025.
On a monthly basis, October's largest increase in retail sales was at auto dealers (+2 percent). Higher new car sales (+2.5 percent) led the increase, followed by used cars (+2.5 percent).
Sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors were down 0.5 percent in [October], the sixth consecutive monthly decline.
E-commerce sales rose again in October up 1.5 percent following a 3.3 percent rise in September making up 6.2 percent of total retail trade the same as in September.
Retail sales are up 1.5 percent from October 2023, improving on the 1.2 percent jump on an annual basis in September.
Core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations, fuel vendors and auto dealers, rose at a slower rate in October up 0.2 percent after a 1.4 percent surge in September. Core sales are up 1.8 percent compared to October 2023, a slight deceleration from the 1.9 percent year-over-year increase reported for September.
The October retail sales data underscores the Bank of Canada's decision to cut rates in December, with fourth quarter economic activity expected to be weaker. It will take some time for lower borrowing costs to reverse the slowdown in consumer spending, with overall consumption not expected to pick up until the second half of 2025.
On a monthly basis, October's largest increase in retail sales was at auto dealers (+2 percent). Higher new car sales (+2.5 percent) led the increase, followed by used cars (+2.5 percent).
Sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors were down 0.5 percent in [October], the sixth consecutive monthly decline.
E-commerce sales rose again in October up 1.5 percent following a 3.3 percent rise in September making up 6.2 percent of total retail trade the same as in September.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters agree with the StatsCan estimate looking for a 0.7 percent rise on the month.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are reported in cash terms and disaggregated into eleven main subsectors. Aggregate volume figures are also provided.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Data are available both for total retail sales and those excluding autos and for 16 different store specializations. Since autos account for over 25 percent of retail sales, the sector can have a pronounced impact on overall sales given their volatility. Retail sales are used to estimate the goods portion of personal consumer expenditures in the quarterly GDP accounts, accounting for about 50 percent of the total.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
