Economic activity in Canada increased by 0.3 percent in October, following a revised 0.2 percent uptick in September (previously +0.1 percent). This exceeds the 0.2 percent expectation in the Econoday survey of forecasters and could reflect the start of the positive effect from easing monetary policy. Compared to October 2023, GDP rose 2.2 percent.

Services-producing industries saw a 0.1 percent increase in activity in October (slowing down from a 0.4 percent rise in September), in large part driven by increases in the real estate, rental, and leasing sector. Still, this was the fifth consecutive month where the services-producing industries increased.

Meanwhile, activity in the goods-producing industries rebounded by 0.9 percent following a 0.1 percent contraction in September, mainly because of mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. This breaks a streak of monthly declines seen between June and September.

The consensus forecast looks for a rise of 0.2 percent in October after a 0.1 percent gain in September. That compares with Statistics Canada's 0.1 percent preliminary estimate. Home sales, manufacturing and wholesale activity are expected to provide a modest boost. That would get the fourth quarter off to a slightly better start.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.

Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.

The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.