ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Composite Index47.347.3 to 47.347.248.6
Services Index49.449.4 to 49.449.351.6

Highlights

Germany's final composite and service PMI fell to their lowest in nine months in November. The former declined to 47.2 from October's final 48.6 while the services PMI fell to 49.3 from 51.6. Both readings were 0.1 point below their respective flash estimates.

The setback was led by declines in new business, particularly from manufacturers and the public sector and demand from abroad decreased for a fifth consecutive month.

Employment in services also declined for a fifth straight month, marking the longest stretch of job shedding since 2009. The reduction was modest but sentiment about the year ahead still deteriorated and capacity pressures eased further, evidenced by a substantial clearing of backlogs.

Cost pressures rose as wage increases pushed input price inflation to a 4-month high. This contributed to a notable spike in output price inflation, with service providers passing costs onto customers at the strongest rate since April.

Overall, the data add to downside risk to fourth quarter GDP growth and argue against any near-term recovery. Today's update puts the German RPI at minus 29 and the RPI-P at minus 21, both gauges showing overall economic activity falling quite well short of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The composite final and services final are seen unrevised from the flash indexes at 47.3 and 49.4, respectively.

Definition

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global.

Description

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries (including the European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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