| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | €18.0B | €18.0B to €19.0B | €13.4B | €17.0B | €16.9B |
| Imports - M/M | -0.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | 4.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | ||
| Exports - M/M | -2.8% | -1.7% | -1.8% | ||
| Exports - Y/Y | 0.4% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
Highlights
Seasonally adjusted German exports fell by 2.8 percent month-over-month to €124.6 billion in October, about €4.6 billion below the consensus and marking the lowest performance since May 2020, while imports showed only a marginal decline of 0.1 percent to €111.2 billion. This resulted in a trade surplus of €13.4 billion, significantly lower than a prior revised €16.9 billion in September 2024 and €18.9 billion in October 2023.
Trade within the EU remained relatively stable, with exports down 0.7 percent and imports up 0.4 percent. Notably, exports to non-euro EU countries dropped 0.9 percent, while imports from these regions rose by 1.1 percent, reflecting robust intra-European trade dynamics. In contrast, trade with non-EU countries saw sharper declines, with exports falling 5.3 percent and imports dropping 0.6 percent.
The United States remained Germany's top export destination, although exports plummeted 14.2 percent month-over-month to €12.2 billion. Exports to China decreased by 3.8 percent, while exports to the UK rose by 2.1 percent. Imports from China and the US also declined, while imports from the UK grew modestly.
Year-over-year comparisons show resilience, with exports up 0.4 percent and imports rising 4.3 percent, highlighting Germany's ability to sustain trade flows amidst global challenges. However, shrinking trade surpluses signal mounting pressures on export-dependent sectors. The latest update takes Germany's RPI to minus 14 and the RPI-P to minus 17. This means that economic activity in general is running slightly behind market expectations.
Trade within the EU remained relatively stable, with exports down 0.7 percent and imports up 0.4 percent. Notably, exports to non-euro EU countries dropped 0.9 percent, while imports from these regions rose by 1.1 percent, reflecting robust intra-European trade dynamics. In contrast, trade with non-EU countries saw sharper declines, with exports falling 5.3 percent and imports dropping 0.6 percent.
The United States remained Germany's top export destination, although exports plummeted 14.2 percent month-over-month to €12.2 billion. Exports to China decreased by 3.8 percent, while exports to the UK rose by 2.1 percent. Imports from China and the US also declined, while imports from the UK grew modestly.
Year-over-year comparisons show resilience, with exports up 0.4 percent and imports rising 4.3 percent, highlighting Germany's ability to sustain trade flows amidst global challenges. However, shrinking trade surpluses signal mounting pressures on export-dependent sectors. The latest update takes Germany's RPI to minus 14 and the RPI-P to minus 17. This means that economic activity in general is running slightly behind market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasts call for the trade surplus to widen to E18.0 billion in October from E17.0 billion in September.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
