ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month1.5%0.0% to 2.5%-1.0%-2.5%-2.0%
Year over Year-4.7%-4.6%-4.2%

Highlights

In October, industrial production fell by 1.0 percent compared to the previous month, a stark contrast with the consensus projections of a 1.5 percent rise and following a smaller revised 2.0 percent drop in September. Energy production was as a significant driver of the decline, plummeting by 8.9 percent month-over-month. The automotive industry also contributed negatively, with a 1.9 percent fall decline. Year-over-year, output rose by 4.7 percent.

Excluding energy and construction, industrial production decreased by 0.3 percent from September, highlighting broad-based weaknesses. Consumer goods production dropped by 1.0 percent, and capital goods 0.4 percent, although intermediate goods showed a slight improvement of 0.4 percent. The construction sector remained stable, offering no relief to the overall contraction.

Energy-intensive industries faced sustained pressure, with output down 0.9 percent month-over-month and 4.0 percent lower in the AugustOctober period compared to the previous three months. Year-over-year, production in energy-intensive branches declined by 0.8 percent, underscoring the impact of high energy costs and subdued demand.

The latest update puts the RPI at minus 22 and the RPI-P at minus 13, meaning that economic activity in general continues to lag behind expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

After a dismal 2.5 percent drop in industrial production in September, forecasters see a rebound of 1.5 percent in October.

Definition

Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Data are collected from companies in the sector with fifty or more employees and include mining and quarrying, manufacturing, energy and, in contrast to its Eurozone counterpart, construction.

Description

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

Like the manufacturing orders data, the production index has the advantage of being available in a timely manner giving a more current view of business activity. Those responding to the data collection survey account for about 80 percent of total industrial production. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded.

This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
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