Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.2% to -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
Year over Year | 2.2% | 2.2% to 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
HICP - M/M | -0.7% | -0.7% to -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.4% | 2.4% to 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
Highlights
Services inflation, at 4.0 percent year-over-year, significantly exceeded overall inflation, driven by increases in transport insurance (34.5 percent) and catering services (6.7 percent). However, energy prices dropped 3.7 percent year-over-year, with heating oil (minus 12.5 percent) and electricity (minus 4.1 percent) registering significant declines while food prices increased 1.8 percent, less than October's 2.3 percent rise. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was 3.0 percent, again unrevised and so still 0.1 percentage point higher than at the start of the quarter.
Month-over-month, consumer prices fell 0.2 percent, reflecting seasonal declines in airfares (minus 15.2 percent) and holiday packages (minus 13.2 percent).
Indeed, while energy costs cool, core and services inflation continue to underscore structural challenges. Today's update puts the German RPI and RPI-P at minus 11 and minus 13 respectively. This means that economic activity in general is running slightly behind market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.