ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Composite Index49.949.9 to 49.950.551.8
Services Index50.050.0 to 50.050.852.0

Highlights

The flash composite output index was revised up to 50.5, some 0.6 points above the flash estimate but still 1.3 points below October's final. The latter half of November performed slightly better than the earlier half, making for the thirteenth straight month in which index has been in positive growth territory. That said, the rate of expansion is only marginal in both the main sectors optimism and optimism about the coming year was the weakest since December 2022.

The service sector index rose to a final 50.8, up 0.8 points versus the flash estimate but 1.2 points below October's final mark and a 13-month low. Demand continued to rise but cautious decision-making among clients was partly due to uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget. New business continued to increase modestly, but employment remained a relatively weak. Headcount declined for the second time in a row, albeit at a slower pace than in October.

Input cost inflation accelerated to the fastest since April, contributing to a steeper rise in output charges. The overall rate of prices charged inflation was the highest since July.

The UK RPI now stands at minus 11, and RPI-P at minus 21, showing overall economic activity is running somewhat behind market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The composite final and services final are seen unrevised from the flash indexes at 49.9 and 50.0, respectively.

Definition

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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