| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.1% to 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 3-Months over 3-Months | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Highlights
Monthly real GDP declined by 0.1 percent, some 0.3 percentage points below the consensus and matching the previous month's fall. The drop was driven by significant decreases in production output, particularly in manufacturing and mining. Over the same period, services output stagnated, marking no growth for two consecutive months.
The 3-monthly change reveals limited resilience, with GDP growing by 0.1 percent, bolstered by gains in services and construction. Construction's performance was notable, despite a 0.4 percent monthly contraction in October, as it posted 0.4 percent growth across the three months.
Production output remained the weakest link, falling 0.6 percent in October and 0.3 percent over three months. Despite these short-term contractions, the annual comparison signals steady improvement, with GDP rising 1.1 percent in the three months to October 2024 and 1.3 percent compared to October 2023.
These figures increase the risk of a contraction in fourth quarter GDP and will bolster market speculation about a series of interest rte cuts in 2025. Today's update puts the UK RPI at 2 and the RPI-P at minus 17. This means that while overall economic activity is matching expectations, the real economy is undershooting.
The 3-monthly change reveals limited resilience, with GDP growing by 0.1 percent, bolstered by gains in services and construction. Construction's performance was notable, despite a 0.4 percent monthly contraction in October, as it posted 0.4 percent growth across the three months.
Production output remained the weakest link, falling 0.6 percent in October and 0.3 percent over three months. Despite these short-term contractions, the annual comparison signals steady improvement, with GDP rising 1.1 percent in the three months to October 2024 and 1.3 percent compared to October 2023.
These figures increase the risk of a contraction in fourth quarter GDP and will bolster market speculation about a series of interest rte cuts in 2025. Today's update puts the UK RPI at 2 and the RPI-P at minus 17. This means that while overall economic activity is matching expectations, the real economy is undershooting.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Growth is expected up 0.2 percent on the month in October versus minus 0.1 percent in September.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The monthly report is based on output data only as the income and expenditure series are not available.
Description
GDP covers all aspects of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. GDP contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. However, the monthly report is quite limited and only provides data on the main output sectors. More detailed information is available in the quarterly reports.
