ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month0.0%-0.5% to 0.5%0.0%-2.0%-1.5%
Year over Year-1.2%-2.8%-2.2%

Highlights

The industrial production data for October was stable over the month, which had previously seen a 1.5 percent revised decline in September. This stability was in line with the consensus, driven by notable gains in capital goods (1.7 percent) offset by decreases in energy (minus 1.9 percent), durable consumer goods (minus 1.8 percent), and non-durable consumer goods (minus 2.3 percent). Intermediate goods remained unchanged, highlighting subdued activity in core manufacturing inputs.

On an annual basis, industrial production fell by 1.2 percent, driven by declines across most sectors. Intermediate goods (minus 3.5 percent), durable consumer goods (minus 3.2 percent), and capital goods (minus 1.7 percent) recorded the largest contractions. Energy production also fell (minus 1.0 percent), while non-durable consumer goods saw a robust increase of 3.3 percent, suggesting resilience in everyday consumer demand.

Regionally the headline fall was dominated by Spain (3.0 percent), posting a solid gain for the second month running after back-to-back losses in July and August. However, Germany posted the second-largest loss in the bloc, where production was down some 4.9 percent. Italy (minus 3.6 percent) and France (minus 0.8 percent) similarly had poor months.

In summary, persistent declines in key industrial sectors and weak energy production highlight ongoing challenges, with recovery prospects dependent on stabilising consumer demand and addressing structural inefficiencies. The latest update takes the RPI to minus 5 and the RPI-P to minus 10. This means that economic activities, in general, are within the consensus of market expectations of the Eurozone economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Eurozone industrial output is expected flat on the month in October after a nasty 2.0 percent drop on the month in September.

Definition

Industrial production measures the physical output of factories, mines and utilities. The measure provided by Eurostat excludes the volatile construction subsector for which data are released a few days later.

Description

Industrial production measures changes in the volume of output for the EMU's member states. The industrial production index provides a measure of the volume trend in value added at factor cost over a given reference period, excluding VAT and other similar deductible taxes. The preferred number is industrial production excluding construction. As with other EMU statistics, the data are provided by the national statistics offices to Eurostat (the European Union statistical agency) where it is combined to produce an overall output measure.

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
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