ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Annual Rate664K613K to 740K664K610K627K

Highlights

Home sales are right on target with the Econoday consensus at 664,000 in November after a revised 627,000 in October. Sales are up 5.9 percent compared to October and up 8.7 percent from 611,000 in November 2023.

Sales are mixed across regions with sharp increases of 17.3 percent in the Midwest and up 13.9 percent in the South, while sales are off 41.0 percent in the Northeast and down 7.5 percent in the West. There may be some rebound in sales in November related to the hurricanes in the Southeast depressing sales in October.

At the current sales pace, there were 8.9 months of new homes offered for sale in November, down from 9.2 in October. The average sales price is down 5.4 percent to $484,800 in November from $525,400 in October, and up 1.8 percent compared to November 2023.

Homebuilders are seeing fewer sales of units not yet started at 13 percent of the total in November after 15 percent in October. Sales of homes under construction is 35 percent of the total while homes completed are 52 percent of all sales of single-family homes in November.

Homebuyers are less anxious to snap up new construction while inventories of existing homes are more plentiful, but those who had a lock on a lower mortgage rate from September and October were also more inclined to buy before it expired at a time when rates are moving up.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Home sales are seen recovering to a 664,000 annual rate in November after plunging to 610,000 in October from a strong 738,000 in September. Weather depressed sales in October. That's not seen as a factor in November but rising mortgage rates are.

Definition

New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances.

Description

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as new home sales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, new home sales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the new home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
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