Highlights
Powell said,"We're going to react to the data," in setting future monetary policy.
Powell noted several times that the fed funds target rate range is now 100 basis points lower than at its peak and"much closer to neutral" than it had been and a"significantly less restrictive policy stance". Solid and consistently stronger than expected growth in the economy puts the Fed in a position judiciously"recalibrate" monetary policy. Policymakers are not on a preset course and"can be cautious regarding further easing," Powell said.
The FOMC is positioned to lower rates sooner and/or faster if the labor market cools more than expected. Powell said that the FOMC is satisfied with present labor market conditions after significant cooling earlier this year and that no further cooling is desired on the part of policymakers. If the labor market dose show signs of deteriorating, the FOMC can move to lower rates"more quickly". On the other hand, if disinflationary progress is less than expected or if inflation shows an uptick, policymakers can"dial back" on rate cuts. Powell said,"Inflation has eased, but remains elevated" compared to the Fed's 2 percent goal.
When asked about the impact of tariffs on the FOMC forecasts, Powell said some participants explicitly included that in their projections, some did not, and some did not mention tariffs at all. Powell noted that while policymakers are thinking about various scenarios, any impact on policy setting will have to wait for the actuality before factoring into any decision.
Powell said the FOMC's decision was a"closer call" in an oblique reference to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's dissent in the 11-1 vote. The inflation story is"still broadly on track" but the"sideways" move in price measures means the FOMC has to consider the"two-sided risks" to the dual mandate.