Highlights

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers a consistent message at his press briefing that the US economy is in a"good place" and that monetary policy is"well positioned" to keep it that way. He said the FOMC is"committed to maintaining the economy's strength". The outlook for the FOMC is one of"roughly balanced" risks to the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. He said the FOMC,"remains attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate".

Powell said,"We're going to react to the data," in setting future monetary policy.

Powell noted several times that the fed funds target rate range is now 100 basis points lower than at its peak and"much closer to neutral" than it had been and a"significantly less restrictive policy stance". Solid and consistently stronger than expected growth in the economy puts the Fed in a position judiciously"recalibrate" monetary policy. Policymakers are not on a preset course and"can be cautious regarding further easing," Powell said.

The FOMC is positioned to lower rates sooner and/or faster if the labor market cools more than expected. Powell said that the FOMC is satisfied with present labor market conditions after significant cooling earlier this year and that no further cooling is desired on the part of policymakers. If the labor market dose show signs of deteriorating, the FOMC can move to lower rates"more quickly". On the other hand, if disinflationary progress is less than expected or if inflation shows an uptick, policymakers can"dial back" on rate cuts. Powell said,"Inflation has eased, but remains elevated" compared to the Fed's 2 percent goal.

When asked about the impact of tariffs on the FOMC forecasts, Powell said some participants explicitly included that in their projections, some did not, and some did not mention tariffs at all. Powell noted that while policymakers are thinking about various scenarios, any impact on policy setting will have to wait for the actuality before factoring into any decision.

Powell said the FOMC's decision was a"closer call" in an oblique reference to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's dissent in the 11-1 vote. The inflation story is"still broadly on track" but the"sideways" move in price measures means the FOMC has to consider the"two-sided risks" to the dual mandate.

Definition

The Fed announced in 2011 that then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke would hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC's latest quarterly economic projections. The purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and to allow for questions-and-answers with the press. According to the Fed, the"introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication." The press briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. ET on the days of FOMC statements in which quarterly projections are released. Beginning in 2019, the briefing will be held after each FOMC meeting. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET after the conclusion of every FOMC meeting regardless of whether there are forecasts or not.

Description

The Fed’s meeting statement and economic projections can move financial markets. However, the Fed’s meeting statement — which indicates any changes in monetary policy—typically is very concise and lacking in detail. However, the Fed now releases its economic forecasts four times a year. As of March 20, 2013, the forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement during the months of March, June, September, and December. After each of the 8 Fed meetings, the chair holds a press conference to explain the forecasts and other policy issues. The chair’s press conference allows for the financial markets and public in general to learn more about why and how the monetary policy decision was made and to learn more about FOMC views on the direction of the economy—including real growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the near term.
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