Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 215K | 213K to 220K | 224K | 213K | 215K |
Initial Claims - Change | 9K | -2K | 0K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 218.25K | 217K | 217.5K |
Highlights
Seasonal factors had expected a drop in unadjusted claims of 43,221 (-17.6 percent) from the previous week, but the actual decline was smaller, -34,967 or -14.3 percent.
There was a noticeable fall in first-time claims filed in California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas.
Insured unemployment is plunged 25,000 in the November 23 week to 1.871 million, from a downwardly revised 1.896 million in the prior week but continuing claims are up by 53,000 from the same week a year ago, underscoring the drop-off in demand for labor. The four-week moving average is down 3,250 to 1.884 million, after an downwardly revised 1.888 million in the November 16 week. The insured rate of unemployment returned to 1.2 percent in the November 23 week, after spending the prior two weeks at 1.3 percent.
The jobless claims data paints the picture of a labor market where while employers are not hiring at a rapid clip, they are not making significant cuts to their workforce either resulting in a somewhat sluggish labor market. The elevated number of continuing claims compared to a year ago shows the tough conditions facing those searching for new employment. This data supports a Federal Open Market Committee decision to cut rates again in December.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.