ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Initial Claims - Level215K213K to 220K224K213K215K
Initial Claims - Change9K-2K0K
4-Week Moving Average218.25K217K217.5K

Highlights

Initial jobless claims rose in the latest week, up 9,000 in the week ending November 30 from the upwardly revised 215,000 level (previously 213,000) reported for the prior week. The November 30 week's level came in above the consensus of 215,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The four-week moving average is up 750 to 218,250 in the November 30 week, after a revised 217,500 in the prior week.

Seasonal factors had expected a drop in unadjusted claims of 43,221 (-17.6 percent) from the previous week, but the actual decline was smaller, -34,967 or -14.3 percent.

There was a noticeable fall in first-time claims filed in California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas.

Insured unemployment is plunged 25,000 in the November 23 week to 1.871 million, from a downwardly revised 1.896 million in the prior week but continuing claims are up by 53,000 from the same week a year ago, underscoring the drop-off in demand for labor. The four-week moving average is down 3,250 to 1.884 million, after an downwardly revised 1.888 million in the November 16 week. The insured rate of unemployment returned to 1.2 percent in the November 23 week, after spending the prior two weeks at 1.3 percent.

The jobless claims data paints the picture of a labor market where while employers are not hiring at a rapid clip, they are not making significant cuts to their workforce either resulting in a somewhat sluggish labor market. The elevated number of continuing claims compared to a year ago shows the tough conditions facing those searching for new employment. This data supports a Federal Open Market Committee decision to cut rates again in December.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Claims are expected to tick up to 215,000, back toward their 4-week moving average of 217,000, after slipping to 213,000 a week ago. The data suggest ongoing strength in the employment market.

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Description

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
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