ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Change0bp0bp to 0bp0bp0bp
Level4.35%4.35% to 4.35%4.35%4.35%

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its main policy rate, the cash rate, unchanged at 4.35 percent at its meeting today, in line with the consensus forecast. Officials increased this rate by 25 basis points in November 2023 but have since left it unchanged. Over this period, officials have noted that previous policy tightening should help return inflation to within their target range of two percent to three percent over the forecast period.

In the statement accompanying today's decision, however, officials again expressed concern about the strength of price pressures, with measures of underlying inflation still above the target range. Although officials expressed cautious optimism that some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased, they again noted that they"do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026".

Despite growing public pressure for policy rates to be cut, officials concluded that inflation"remains too high" and again reiterated today returning inflation to target remains their highest priority. Although the statement provided little guidance about the likely timing of any changes to policy rates, officials did remove a reference to"not ruling anything in or out", suggesting that a further rate hike is no longer being considered. RBA Governor Michele Bullock, speaking after the announcement, also expressed confidence that inflation will fall in line with offical forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Weak data lately put pressure on the Australian dollar as some traders bet the RBA would kick off its long-awaited rate cut cycle soon. Still, RBA officials have remained hawkish and forecasters generally see no rate move until February or May of next year.

Definition

The Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) announces its monetary policy with regard to interest rates on the first Tuesday of each month with the exception of January when it is on vacation. The RBA is the central bank of Australia and its duty is to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. It does this by setting the cash rate to meet an agreed medium-term inflation target, working to maintain a strong financial system and efficient payments system.

Description

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA's) main responsibility is monetary policy. Policy decisions are made by the Reserve Bank Board with the objective of achieving low and stable inflation over the medium term. Other responsibilities include maintaining financial system stability, while at the same time promoting the safety and efficiency of the payments system. The RBA regards appropriate monetary policy as a major factor contributing to the Australian dollar's stability, which in turn leads to full employment and the economic prosperity for Australia.

The RBA is unique among the central banks - it has two boards with complementary responsibilities. The Reserve Bank Board is responsible for monetary policy and overall financial system stability. The Payments System Board has specific responsibility for the safety and efficiency of the payments system.

The RBA sets an interest rate at which it lends to financial institutions. This interest rate then affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the price of financial assets, such as bonds and shares, and the exchange rate, which affect consumer and business demand in a variety of ways. Lowering or raising interest rates affects spending in the economy.

The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.

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