Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Change | -25bp | -25bp to -50bp | -50bp | -25bp |
Level | 0.75% | 0.75% to 0.50% | 0.50% | 1.00% |
Highlights
Today's move reflects low inflation since the September MPA, in part attributed by the bank to the appreciation of the Swiss franc. As a result, the new forecast is slightly lower than last time. Hence, annual inflation is now seen at 1.1 percent this year (versus 1.2 percent in September), 0.3 percent in 2025 (0.6 percent) and 0.8 percent in 2026 (0.7 percent). The revised projection assumes that the SNB policy rate is 0.5 percent over the entire forecast horizon. Without today's cut, the new forecast would even be weaker.
In terms of the real economy, GDP growth is still expected to be quite modest at 1.0 percent in 2024 before accelerating slightly to 1.5 percent in 2025. Unemployment should continue to rise slightly while capacity utilisation declines. However, uncertainty surrounding the global economy remains high.
In sum, today's announcement will probably not come as a major surprise as significant speculation about a possible 50 bp cut had been building. Today's policy statement is clearly dovish and May not be the last this cycle.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The SNB has traditionally implemented its monetary policy by fixing a target range of 1.0 percentage points at the level deemed appropriate for the three-month Swiss franc Libor. The Bank has then normally sought to hold the rate around the middle of that corridor. However, as a result of strong capital inflows into the local currency prompted by the 2008/09 global downturn, this objective range has been both narrowed and reduced to just 0.0 - 0.25 percent, with a point target of 0.0 percent. In fact, since September 2011 the thrust of policy has been determined largely by the SNB's expressed aim of preventing the CHF strengthening beneath a CHF1.20 floor versus the euro.
The Swiss National Bank publishes its monetary policy assessments on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. In these reports it describes the current monetary environment and formulates its monetary policy intentions for the following quarter. It also provides inflation forecasts which help financial markets to formulate of where monetary policy might be headed. Twice a year -- in June and in December -- the Bank holds a media conference. At that time, the Governing Board provides information about the economic situation and comments on its monetary policy.