Highlights
German industrial production is forecast to fall back by 0.5% in September on the month after a 2.9% rise in August.
The trade surplus in Europe's largest economy is seen narrowing to E19.0 billion in September from E22.5 billion in August.
The UK Halifax house price index is expected to rise a further 0.2% on the month in October after rising 0.3% in September.
Retail sales in the Eurozone are seen rising a decent 0.5% on the month and 1.3% on year in September after gains of 0.2% and 0.8% respectively in August.
The Bank of England is forecast to lower the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, possibly in a tight vote, in light of lower economic growth and easing inflation. The bank stood pat in September after conducting a 25 basis point cut in August, its first reduction since March 2020 and matching its lowest level since May last year.
The BoE's decision Thursday would compare with a larger 50-basis point cut by the Bank of Canada last month, which lowered its policy rate to a less restrictive 4.75%.
In the U.S. new jobless claims are forecast to move back up to 221,000 after a surprising dip to 216,000 in the previous week. The numbers have been noisy owing to strike and weather effects.
The initial release for Q3 is expected to show productivity rose at a 2.5% rate in the quarter versus 2.5% in Q2. Unit labor costs are seen up at a 1.0% rate versus 0.4% in Q2.
At 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce the outcome of its two-day policy meeting. The FOMC is expected to trim the fed funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50% to 4.75% after slashing it by 50 basis points to 4.75% to 5.00% in September. The Federal Reserve is trying to prevent the labor market from cooling too fast while ensuring inflation is stable around its 2% target over the long run.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a post-meeting news conference at 2:30 p.m. EST (1930 GMT).
Forecasters see U.S. consumer credit up $12.0 billion on the month in September.
Japan's real household spending is forecast to slump 2.5% on year in September after posting a smaller-than-expected 1.9% drop in August and edging up 0.1% in July as consumers remain frugal in the face of high costs for necessities including short-supplied rice. The protracted heat wave also dampened demand for autumn clothing and other seasonal goods.
On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people are expected to slip 0.5% after rebounding a higher-than-forecast 2.0% in August, recovering from the 1.7% drop in July, when the heat wave had intensified. There may be a pullback after many households in August rushed to stock up water, food, medicine, toilet paper and flashlights among other emergency goods in preparation for earthquakes and typhoons.
The focus is on real core spending (excluding housing, motor vehicles and remittance) in the July-September quarter, a key indicator used to estimate private consumption in the Q3 GDP data (due Nov. 15), following a 0.3% drop on quarter in April-June. The median economist forecast for the preliminary Q3 GDP is a slight 0.2% rise on quarter, or an annualized 0.6%, hit by sluggish private consumption and a pullback in business investment. It would mark a sharp slowdown from a 0.7% rebound (annualized 2.9%) in Q2, when consumption and capex picked up. The GDP posted its first contraction in two quarters in Q1, hit by suspended output at Toyota group factories over a safety test scandal that had a widespread impact beyond the auto industry.
The trade surplus in Europe's largest economy is seen narrowing to E19.0 billion in September from E22.5 billion in August.
The UK Halifax house price index is expected to rise a further 0.2% on the month in October after rising 0.3% in September.
Retail sales in the Eurozone are seen rising a decent 0.5% on the month and 1.3% on year in September after gains of 0.2% and 0.8% respectively in August.
The Bank of England is forecast to lower the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, possibly in a tight vote, in light of lower economic growth and easing inflation. The bank stood pat in September after conducting a 25 basis point cut in August, its first reduction since March 2020 and matching its lowest level since May last year.
The BoE's decision Thursday would compare with a larger 50-basis point cut by the Bank of Canada last month, which lowered its policy rate to a less restrictive 4.75%.
In the U.S. new jobless claims are forecast to move back up to 221,000 after a surprising dip to 216,000 in the previous week. The numbers have been noisy owing to strike and weather effects.
The initial release for Q3 is expected to show productivity rose at a 2.5% rate in the quarter versus 2.5% in Q2. Unit labor costs are seen up at a 1.0% rate versus 0.4% in Q2.
At 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce the outcome of its two-day policy meeting. The FOMC is expected to trim the fed funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50% to 4.75% after slashing it by 50 basis points to 4.75% to 5.00% in September. The Federal Reserve is trying to prevent the labor market from cooling too fast while ensuring inflation is stable around its 2% target over the long run.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a post-meeting news conference at 2:30 p.m. EST (1930 GMT).
Forecasters see U.S. consumer credit up $12.0 billion on the month in September.
Japan's real household spending is forecast to slump 2.5% on year in September after posting a smaller-than-expected 1.9% drop in August and edging up 0.1% in July as consumers remain frugal in the face of high costs for necessities including short-supplied rice. The protracted heat wave also dampened demand for autumn clothing and other seasonal goods.
On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people are expected to slip 0.5% after rebounding a higher-than-forecast 2.0% in August, recovering from the 1.7% drop in July, when the heat wave had intensified. There may be a pullback after many households in August rushed to stock up water, food, medicine, toilet paper and flashlights among other emergency goods in preparation for earthquakes and typhoons.
The focus is on real core spending (excluding housing, motor vehicles and remittance) in the July-September quarter, a key indicator used to estimate private consumption in the Q3 GDP data (due Nov. 15), following a 0.3% drop on quarter in April-June. The median economist forecast for the preliminary Q3 GDP is a slight 0.2% rise on quarter, or an annualized 0.6%, hit by sluggish private consumption and a pullback in business investment. It would mark a sharp slowdown from a 0.7% rebound (annualized 2.9%) in Q2, when consumption and capex picked up. The GDP posted its first contraction in two quarters in Q1, hit by suspended output at Toyota group factories over a safety test scandal that had a widespread impact beyond the auto industry.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
