The November report found sales still falling on the year and by rather more than expected. The headline index weighed in at minus 18 percent, down from minus 6 percent in October, 4 percentage points short of the market consensus and a 3-month low. The CBI's expectations for December (minus 29 percent) show a steeper drop while the broader quarterly survey found sentiment amongst retailers for the coming next three months (-21 percent after -13 percent) deteriorate to its lowest level since November 2022.

Weak consumer demand and subdued seasonal sales have pressured investment, with firms planning reduced capital expenditure over the next 12 months despite a slight improvement from August. Employment figures present a mixed picture: although job losses slowed to their weakest rate since November 2023 (minus 18 percent), headcount is projected to remain stable in December (minus 2 percent).

Selling price inflation eased to 24 percent from 30 percent in August, remaining below historical norms. However, this trend may reverse next month, with inflation expected to rise (33 percent). Across the broader distribution sector, sales volumes fell moderately (minus 17 percent) and are forecast to sustain this pace into December. The latest update takes the RPI to minus 25 and the RPI-P to minus 35, meaning that economic activities, in general, are well behind market expectations.

The headline sales balance is expected to fall from minus 6 percent in October to minus 14 percent.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.