The CBI's latest industrial trends survey highlights a mixed picture for UK manufacturing. At 6 percent, the headline orders index beat forecasts by 6 percentage points an was up from minus 27 percent in October. However, it was still below the long-term average of minus 13 percent and output volumes fell sharply in the quarter to November, with a balance of minus 12 percent, down from minus 6 percent previously. The fall here was led by declines in chemicals, mechanical engineering, and metal products. However, manufacturers expect modest output growth by February by 9 percent.

Export order books remained steady at minus 27 percent, trailing its minus 18 percent long-run average, while selling price inflation expectations rose to 11 percent, and so slightly above its 7 percent historic norm.

Stock adequacy for finished goods reached its highest level since August 2020, reflecting improved inventory management. Despite falling output and subdued demand, resilient export orders and stronger stock positions, alongside anticipated output growth, offer cautious optimism for the months ahead. The latest update lift the UK RPI to minus 8 and RPI-P to minus 13, showing that economic activity in general is now running only slightly behind market expectations.

The orders balance is seen improving further but by only 2 percentage points to minus 25 percent in November.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly