| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$5.4B | A$4.5B to A$6.0B | A$4.609B | A$5.644B | A$5.284B |
| Imports - M/M | -3.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | -5.8% | -0.1% | -0.2% | ||
| Exports - M/M | -4.3% | -0.2% | -0.6% | ||
| Exports -Y/Y | -8.7% | -6.7% | -7.9% |
Highlights
Australia's goods trade surplus narrowed from a revised A$5.285 billion in August to A$4.609 billion in September, below the consensus forecast of A$5.45 billion. Exports and imports both fell modestly on the month.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 4.3 percent on the month in September after a decline of 0.6 percent in August. Exports of non-rural goods weakened sharply, down 4.2 percent after increasing 0.5 percent previously, outweighing a rebound in exports of rural goods, up 5.4 percent after a previous decline of 5.9 percent. Exports fell 8.7 percent on the year in September after a decline of 7.9 percent in August.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 3.1 percent on the month in September after dropping 0.2 percent in August. Imports of capital goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods recorded weaker growth, partly offset by a rebound in imports of consumption goods. Total imports fell 5.8 percent on the year in September after falling 0.2 percent in August.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 4.3 percent on the month in September after a decline of 0.6 percent in August. Exports of non-rural goods weakened sharply, down 4.2 percent after increasing 0.5 percent previously, outweighing a rebound in exports of rural goods, up 5.4 percent after a previous decline of 5.9 percent. Exports fell 8.7 percent on the year in September after a decline of 7.9 percent in August.
Seasonally adjusted imports fell 3.1 percent on the month in September after dropping 0.2 percent in August. Imports of capital goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods recorded weaker growth, partly offset by a rebound in imports of consumption goods. Total imports fell 5.8 percent on the year in September after falling 0.2 percent in August.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The merchandise trade surplus is expected flat to slightly lower at A$5.4 billion in September from $5.6 billion in August.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
