ConsensusActualPreviousConsensus Range
Month over Month0.2%0.3%0.2%
Year over Year1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2% to 1.2%
HICP - M/M0.3%0.3%0.3%
HICP - Y/Y1.5%1.6%1.5%

Highlights

The CPI rose by 0.3 percent in October, following a 1.2 percent increase in September. The month-over-month inflation numbers were driven by services prices which rose by 0.2 percent. Also, energy prices increased by 0.8 percent, while food prices grew modestly by 0.2 percent, with fresh products up by 2.3 percent.

Year-over-year, CPI increased by 1.2 percent, reflecting stabilised inflation. Furthermore, year-over-year, core inflation remained steady at 1.4 percent. Energy prices fell by 2.0 percent year-over-year, with petroleum product prices dropping less sharply. Conversely, gas prices surged by 10.7 percent, while electricity rose by 9.0 percent. Service price growth slowed to 2.3 percent, with reduced growth in vehicle maintenance, social protection, and catering services, but accelerated in insurance and accommodation services. Manufactured product prices fell slightly by 0.2 percent year-over-year, with notable declines in major household appliances and health products. Food prices increased by 0.6 percent annually, with fresh vegetables driving the rise, despite slower growth in fresh fruits and fish.

The harmonised index of consumer prices also increased by 0.3 percent monthly and 1.6 percent annually, showing a slight acceleration from September. The latest update takes the RPI to 4 and the RPI-P to 5, suggesting that economic activity in general is within the consensus of the UK economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters see CPI unrevised at 1.2 percent on year in the final October report.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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