| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 7.2% | 7.2% to 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% |
Highlights
The third quarter mainland unemployment rate edged a tick higher to 7.2 percent, its first increase since the fourth quarter of last year but in line with the market consensus. The overall rate similarly rose 0.1 percentage point to 7.4 percent but remained well below its peak of 10.5 percent in the second quarter of 2015.
Total joblessness was up 35,000 on the quarter, reaching 2.333 million. The youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) surged by 1.8 points to 19.7 percent, while unemployment among older workers (50+) decreased from 5.0 percent to 4.7 percent, its lowest mark since the second quarter of 2020.
The"halo" around unemployment - people who want a job but are not actively seeking - declined by 89,000 while long-term unemployment remained stable at 1.7 percent of the labour force.
The employment rate for people aged 15-64 increased slightly to 69.1 percent, its highest level since records began in 1975. Notably, the employment rate for those aged 50-64 rose sharply to 68.8 percent. The share of part-time workers remained stable, while underemployment hit its lowest point since 1992 at 4.3 percent. Promisingly, the permanent employment rate climbed to 51.1 percent, marking its highest level since 2003.
Today's update paints a mixed picture of the labour market. It also puts the French RPI at minus 11 and RPI-P at minus 13, signalling that economic activity in general is slightly lagging market expectations.
Total joblessness was up 35,000 on the quarter, reaching 2.333 million. The youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) surged by 1.8 points to 19.7 percent, while unemployment among older workers (50+) decreased from 5.0 percent to 4.7 percent, its lowest mark since the second quarter of 2020.
The"halo" around unemployment - people who want a job but are not actively seeking - declined by 89,000 while long-term unemployment remained stable at 1.7 percent of the labour force.
The employment rate for people aged 15-64 increased slightly to 69.1 percent, its highest level since records began in 1975. Notably, the employment rate for those aged 50-64 rose sharply to 68.8 percent. The share of part-time workers remained stable, while underemployment hit its lowest point since 1992 at 4.3 percent. Promisingly, the permanent employment rate climbed to 51.1 percent, marking its highest level since 2003.
Today's update paints a mixed picture of the labour market. It also puts the French RPI at minus 11 and RPI-P at minus 13, signalling that economic activity in general is slightly lagging market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The French ILO unemployment rate for the July-September quarter is forecast to edge up to 7.2% after falling to 7.1% in April-June from 7.2% in January-March.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. It is based on the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The report contains data on both total joblessness and just mainland unemployment; the latter is regarded as the more significant.
Description
The data report the number of unemployed persons (quarterly average) for metropolitan France and for metropolitan France plus overseas departments. The metropolitan measure is regarded as the more useful guide.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
