ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Rate2.4%2.4% to 2.5%2.5%2.4%

Highlights

Japanese payrolls posted their 27th straight rise on year in October amid labor shortages in many sectors. The unemployment rate ticked up to 2.5% after improving further to an eight-month low of 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August and 2.7% in July. It was just above the median economist forecast of 2.4%.

Job losses and retirements rose a seasonally adjusted 5.4% on the month after recent drops, more than offsetting the impact of decreases in the numbers of people who began looking for work (down 4.1%) and of those who quit for other positions (down 5.4%).

Employment rose 420,000 on the year to 68.13 million in October after rising 270,000 in September. The number of unemployed fell 50,000 to 1.70 million for the third consecutive drop after falling 90,000 the previous month. It was the lowest since 1.63 million recorded in January 2024. The year-on-year job creation was led by the information telecommunications and the medical and welfare category. Manufacturing and construction trimmed payrolls.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 27th straight rise on year in October amid labor shortages in many sectors. The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 2.4% after improving further to an eight-month low of 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August and 2.7% in July.

In October, public pension and healthcare coverage for part-time workers was expanded to include those who work at smaller firms that have 51 to 100 people on payrolls. This might have encouraged more people to begin looking for work, thus being counted as unemployed in the labor market, but that factor alone is unlikely to have pushed up the unemployment rate.

The government continued to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement."

Definition

The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.

Description

The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.

By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
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