ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Composite Index50.850.8
Manufacturing Index50.350.150.450.4 to 50.6
Non-Manufacturing Index50.050.2

Highlights

Official Chinese PMI survey data show subdued growth in China's aggregate economy in November. The headline index for the CFLP manufacturing PMI rose from 50.1 in October to 50.3 in November, indicating expansion in the sector for the second consecutive month, albeit barely. The CFLP non-manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2 to 50.0, also indicating weakness in the sector. The composite index covering the entire economy was unchanged at 50.8 in November.

The headline index for the manufacturing PMI was just below the consensus forecast of 50.4. The RPI fell from zero to minus 29 while the RPI-P fell from plus 20 to minus 20, indicating that data are coming in below market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The manufacturing PMI is expected to tick up to 50.4 from 50.1 a month earlier.

Definition

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is the monthly survey of about 800 purchasing managers that is conducted jointly by CFLP and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The questions focus on the health of the manufacturing sector. The numeric result is a diffusion index. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing is growing. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures. The CLFP manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices. The survey tends to have a greater impact when it is released prior to the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI because the two reports are correlated.
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