ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Month over Month0.41%0.59%
Year over Year5.3%5.4%5.5%5.4% to 5.8%

Highlights

Chinese industrial production rose 5.3 percent on the year in October, easing from growth of 5.4 percent in September. Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output rose 5.4 percent on the year after increasing 6.0 percent previously. Utilities output and mining output rose 5.4 percent and 4.6 percent on the year respectively after previous increases of 6.3 percent and 2.9 percent respectively. In month-over-month terms, industrial production rose 0.41 percent after increasing 0.59 percent previously.

Today's data follow a series of policy measures announced by Chinese officials in the last two months in response to ongoing weakness in the property sector and sluggish growth in consumer spending and manufacturing output. Officials lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate, cut banks' reserve requirements, and announced government spending planned for next year would be brought forward.

In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy is exhibiting"steady progress and recovery" but noted"the external environment is increasingly complicated and severe" and"effective demands are still weak at home". Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.

Data published today showed stronger retail sales, with other indicators close to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P both fell from plus 57 and plus 100 to zero and plus 20 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in close to consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Industrial production is expected up 5.5 percent on year in October versus September's 5.4 percent.

Definition

Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.

Description

Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.

The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
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