ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Month over Month0.41%0.39%
Year over Year4.8%3.2%3.8%3.4% to 4.1%

Highlights

Chinese retail sales rose 4.8 percent on the year in October, picking up sharply from growth of 3.2 percent in September. This is the biggest year-over-year increase since February but still well below growth recorded last year, with property market weakness continuing to weigh on consumer spending. In month-over-month terms, retail sales rose 0.41 percent after advancing 0.39 percent previously.

Today's data follow a series of policy measures announced by Chinese officials in the last two months in response to ongoing weakness in the property sector and sluggish growth in consumer spending and manufacturing output. Officials lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate, cut banks' reserve requirements, and announced government spending planned for next year would be brought forward.

In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy is exhibiting"steady progress and recovery" but noted"the external environment is increasingly complicated and severe" and"effective demands are still weak at home". Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.

Data published today showed stronger retail sales, with other indicators close to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P both fell from plus 57 and plus 100 to zero and plus 20 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in close to consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Growth in consumer spending remains depressed by Chinese standards, amid the prolonged real estate slump. Retail sales are expected up 3.8 percent on year in October after rising 3.2 percent in September.

Definition

Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.

Description

Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
Upcoming Events

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2025 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.