Consensus | Actual | Previous | Consensus Range | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Year over Year | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% to 0.9% |
HICP - M/M | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
HICP - Y/Y | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
Highlights
Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and fresh food, was also unrevised at 1.8 percent, the same as in the previous month. Excluding just energy, the rate was 1.9 percent, up from 1.7 percent in September. The gap between goods and services shrank slightly in October.
The HICP, which, unlike the CPI, accounts for seasonal factors like summer sales, rose 0.3 percent monthly, similarly matching its flash estimate. The annual rate was 1.0 percent, up from September's 0.7 percent.
Today's update puts the Italian RPI at minus 21 and the RPI-P at minus 30, indicating that overall economic performance is falling behind market forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.