| Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 93.1 | 93.4 |
| Manufacturing Confidence | 86.5 | 85.8 |
| Consumer Confidence | 96.6 | 97.4 |
Highlights
Overall business confidence declined in November. At 93.1, the Istat gauge was down from 93.4 in October and at its lowest level to date in 2024.
However, the deterioration was not mirrored in manufacturing where confidence rose to 86.5, an improvement from October's 85.8, itself the weakest point this year. Even so, the latest reading remains historically low and reflects ongoing concerns about future levels of production. Meantime, retail trade also improved (from 103.8 to 106.7) but services fell (from 95.2 to 93.7) due to strong pessimism about the current business trend and the order book volume. Construction similarly worsened (from 103.9 to 101.5) with expectations for future employment in particular declining.
Consumer confidence also fell (from 97.4 to 96.6), mainly due to weakness in the current and expected economic situation.
In summary, the report potentially points to shrinking business and consumer activity this month. Today's update leaves the Italian RPI at minus 21 and the RPI-P at minus 30, both measures showing economic activity in general falling short of market expectations.
However, the deterioration was not mirrored in manufacturing where confidence rose to 86.5, an improvement from October's 85.8, itself the weakest point this year. Even so, the latest reading remains historically low and reflects ongoing concerns about future levels of production. Meantime, retail trade also improved (from 103.8 to 106.7) but services fell (from 95.2 to 93.7) due to strong pessimism about the current business trend and the order book volume. Construction similarly worsened (from 103.9 to 101.5) with expectations for future employment in particular declining.
Consumer confidence also fell (from 97.4 to 96.6), mainly due to weakness in the current and expected economic situation.
In summary, the report potentially points to shrinking business and consumer activity this month. Today's update leaves the Italian RPI at minus 21 and the RPI-P at minus 30, both measures showing economic activity in general falling short of market expectations.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
