ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Current Conditions-86.0-86.3 to -86.0-91.4-86.9
Economic Sentiment13.25.0 to 18.07.413.1

Highlights

The November ZEW survey reveals a notably more cautious assessment of the Germany's economy. The Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 13.1 to 7.4 while the current situation indicator dropped from minus 86.9 to minus 91.4, its fourth straight decline and its weakest level May 2020.

The results show analysts less confident about the outlook and clearly more concerned about the current state of German economic activity. Similarly, the Eurozone's economic sentiment fell from 20.1 to 12.5 pointing to less optimism about prospect for the region in general.

The results suggest that any recovery in German economic activity is still some way off and will only underpin worries about the potential hit to growth should President-elect Trump deliver on his promise to hike tariffs. Today's update trims the German RPI to minus 1 and RPI-P to minus 2 showing economic activity in general performing much as expected.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

For current conditions, estimates call for a modest improvement in investor sentiment to minus 86.0 in November from minus 86.9 in October. The sunnier expectations index is seen holding its recent gains at 13.2 in November after an unexpected leap to 13.1 in October from 3.6 in September.

Definition

The Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), asks German financial experts every month for their opinions on current economic conditions and the economic outlook for Germany (as well as other major industrial economies). The responses are synthesised into two simple indices that provide a snapshot of how the economy is seen to be performing.

Description

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The ZEW is followed closely as a precursor and predictor of the Ifo Sentiment Survey and as such is followed closely by market participants. The data are available around mid-month for the current month. The survey provides a measure of analysts' view of current economic conditions as well as a gauge of expectations about the coming six months. The latter measure tends to have the larger market impact and reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. About 350 financial experts take part in the survey.
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