ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month-0.5%-0.7% to 1.4%-2.5%2.9%2.6%
Year over Year-4.6%-2.5%-2.8%

Highlights

Germany's industrial production took a sharp downturn in September, declining by a much steeper than expected 2.5 percent month-over-month and 4.6 percent year-over-year. This slump reversed the revised 2.6 percent growth recorded in August. A broader view shows a 1.9 percent drop over the last three months, confirming underlying weakness.

The automotive industry experienced a dramatic 7.8 percent decline in September, erasing much of the 15.4 percent gain from August. This sector's volatility continues to influence overall industrial performance. Similarly, the chemical industry contracted by 4.3 percent, further weighing on output. However, machinery and equipment production bucked the trend, rising by 1.7 percent. Across all major industrial categories, production faltered. Capital goods fell by 4.0 percent, while intermediate and consumer goods declined by 1.6 percent and 1.4 percent respectively. Even outside manufacturing, energy and construction output shrank by 2.1 percent and 1.4 percent.

Year-over-year, industrial production excluding energy and construction was 5.2 percent lower, highlighting a widespread slowdown. With declines across key sectors, Germany's industrial recovery faces headwinds, underscoring the need for strategic interventions to stabilize output in the months ahead. Even so, this latest update puts the German RPI at 21 and RPI-P at 13, showing overall economic activity still exceeding market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasts call for industrial production to fall back by 0.5 percent in September on the month after a 2.9 percent rise in August.

Definition

Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Data are collected from companies in the sector with fifty or more employees and include mining and quarrying, manufacturing, energy and, in contrast to its Eurozone counterpart, construction.

Description

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

Like the manufacturing orders data, the production index has the advantage of being available in a timely manner giving a more current view of business activity. Those responding to the data collection survey account for about 80 percent of total industrial production. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded.

This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
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