ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.2%0.2% to 0.3%0.1%0.5%
Year over Year1.0%0.8% to 1.1%1.0%0.7%

Highlights

The UK's real GDP increased by 0.1 percent in the third quarter (July to September), slightly below the forecast for the quarter and following a 0.5 percent rise in quarter 2. Year-over-year, real GDP grew by 1.0 percent in line with forecast expectations.

In terms of output, the services sector grew by 0.1 percent, construction by 0.8 percent, while the production sector contracted by 0.2 percent. On the expenditure side, net trade, household spending, business investment, and government consumption all contributed positively to GDP growth.

Nominal GDP rose by 0.8 percent, largely driven by higher employee compensation and other income. However, real GDP per head fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, remaining unchanged compared with the same quarter a year ago.

This data reflects modest growth, with positive contributions from the construction and services sectors offsetting declines in productive activities. Today's updates put the UK RPI at minus 20 and the RPI-P at minus 24, indicating that economic activity in general is lagging moderately behind market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

GDP is seen up 0.2 percent on the quarter and up 1.0 percent on year.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Since 2018, the first, or provisional, estimate includes the GDP expenditure components as well as data on the main output sectors. These results are updated in the second, and final, report.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.

Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if the UK reports that the consumer price index has risen more than the Bank of England's 2 percent inflation target, demand for sterling could decline. Similarly, when the Bank of England lowers interest rates, the pound sterling weakens. (Currency traders also watch the interest rate spread between countries.)
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